2010-06-20

Socionomics—Hemlines drop, men's swim wear confusion

Given the greater diversity of fashion these days, it's sometimes difficult to pinpoint a trend just by looking at photos, since designers offer a mix. A more reliable indicator comes from the fashion reporters and bloggers, what they cover as new or trendy. Here's one from Styleite, Bye-Bye Bare Legs, Hello Mom Skirt
Ah bare leg! We love the feeling after a season of itchy tights and confining denim to set our skin free with the warm springtime air. But unfortunately, this coming spring, designers have other ideas in mind for us.
In flipping through show after show, one main trend keeps popping up — the uber-conservative, knee-length skirt.

Chris Benz basically offered a survey of these longer length hemlines for his entire Resort 2011 collection. Both skirts and dresses were cut crisply below the knee, if not further down, to provide a much more mature aesthetic than in previous collections. One needs to wonder if this is a move to maximize sales and target a demographic that will purchase the clothing instead of one that will just google it and then splurge for the knock-off version.

On a different note, Christopher Bailey for Burberry Prosum waved his magic wand again this season to make even a questionably matronly silhouette appear sexy. Gathers and ruching created dynamic surface detail to the skirts in a way to taunt for the viewing pleasure. The looks were increasingly feminine with light fabrics offering a romantic and nostalgic feel.
Uber-conservative, mature, matronly, nostalgic.

One contra article is looking at men's swim trunks, Short trunks lengthen economic hopes, say US fashion experts
Shorter swim shorts are, according to Eric Jennings of luxury department store Saks Fifth Avenue "definitely the look right now". He told trade-sheet Womenswear Daily that he expected the trend to continue well in to 2011 too. Although he added the caveat that anything "aggressively short" was not a trend. Similarly in the UK Selfridges are also reporting that sales of shorter swimwear are up 42%. If the theory holds, this international soar in sales of skimpy shorts augers well for a worldwide economic recovery.

But not everyone is convinced. Mithun Ramanandi, bodywear buyer at Selfridges, says: "I don't think the two are connected unless it is to do with men going on more holidays when they are more financially secure." Instead he cites footballers as the real reason why shorter trunks sales are increasing. "It started a year ago when Cristiano Ronaldo was pictured in skimpy silver shorts and this year Beckham has been pictured in shorter shorts too. Before then the average guy was buying board shorts, but footballers make trends less intimidating."

Ramanandi concedes that the last time smaller trunks were in fashion was during the 1980s boom and that board shorts became popular during the economic slump of the 1990s. He added: "Smaller shorts are often made by designer brands which have a higher price."
I'm failing to see a connection with social mood here. I found this timeline of swimwear, but its focused more on female swimwear, Glamour Surf Swimwear Timeline
Some highlights:
1920s
Lower neckline and larger armholes
Stockings were finally discarded in the mid 20's

1930s
High necklines in swimwear
Belted suits for men and women

1940s
The bikini is launched in Paris in 1946.
Bathing suits, play suits, or sun suits became more revealing and charming.

1950s
Swimwear takes on the look of of the hourglass
Pointed bust cups
Swimcaps are popular beach accessories

1960s
White lace is used quite a bit in swimwear
Bright psychedelic color palette
Midriff is the focus

1970s
The thong is introduced
String bikini's gain popularity
High cut leg openings appear

1980s
Athletic body build emphasized
Wrestling low cut bodice swimwear
One piece comes back into fashion
Shoulders and backs are the focus
There did seem to be a socionomic trend at least up until the 1970s, perhaps the impact of the sexual revolution drowned the signal. However, take a look at some of the vintage men's suits from Glamour Surf. The 1980s did have shorter shorts, but not Speedo type wear.

Finally, I came across a three-part history of men's swim wear on The Bespoken: For Gentlemen.
From Swimwear To Himwear: A History (part two of three)
Interestingly, men could still get in trouble for going topless in the 30s, but this changed in the period from 1933-1937, which coincides with the stock market rally.

I found this part most relevant to today:
While an arguable thesis, we are living in a period of greater conservatism, at least fashion wise. Fashion’s pendulum has gone in the other direction starting in the mid-1990’s. Men’s swimwear now covers up more of the leg down to, or even below the knee, not unlike the length that our Victorian ancestors wore. Surf and extreme water sports enthusiasts embraced the pant cum swimsuit as the preferred form of swimwear. Dual purposed; it could be worn off the beach. This Speedos vs. Boardies clash of styles has even been the source of political strife. In many European countries, local governments have banned board shorts , Bermudas and the like in municipal swimming pools because of hygiene concerns. In 2007, one local authority in Belgium was accused of imposing the rule in order to dissuade Muslims presumed to want to dress more conservatively from using its pool.

The other big recent innovation is the development of body-covering sun protection swimwear. Through the use of Lycra and new finishing techniques, ‘rash vests’ and one-piece body suits have appeared on the beaches providing 50+ UPF sun-blocking properties.
The fact that full body coverage and rash vests are selling along side those shorter trunks, at best there's no signal here. Also, to the extent the trend favoring those shorter trunks is politically influenced by anti-Muslim sentiment, that itself a sign of negative social mood as Europeans turn anti-immigration.

1 comment:

  1. I like your diagnosis to determine the current social mood. It's really a bit mixed between positive and social mood. I think in terms of socionomics, this is still explainable as the market has rallied about 60% since the low in early 2009 and, in terms of Elliott, this is still a bear market rally. You might also be right that the 70s drowned out the trend. But on the other hand, using stock market highs and lows (1932-1936, 1942-1966, 1982-2000, etc.) instead of decades may be a better way to measure it. The rash vests trend is neat! Reminds me that the monokini (topless bathing) in France is losing appeal: http://www.guardian.co.uk/lifeandstyle/2009/jul/22/topless-bathing-france

    -Ben Hall

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