Economic indicators look weak

Mish is looking at the ECRI in: ECRI Weekly Leading Indicators at Negative 9.8; Has the ECRI Blown Yet Another Recession Call?

David Rosenberg sees some volatility, with recession probability increasing: Rosenberg On The Specifics Of The ECRI Leading Index As An Investment Tool

The growth rate on the ECRI leading index did it again! It sank further into negative terrain, now at -9.8% during the week ending July 9, down from -9.1% the prior week. This was the tenth deterioration in a row and the growth index is now negative for six straight weeks. We have never failed to have a recession with the ECRI at current levels but there is also inherent volatility in the index that requires acknowledgment. Our reckoning is that in the past few weeks, the index has gone from pricing in even-odds of a double-dip to two-in-three odds. It may take a while, but Mr. Market will figure it out before long.

...Relying on indicators that have been useful in previous post-WW2 recessions is like comparing the statistics of U.S. football teams versus the statistics of Australian football teams. They may be called the same thing but they are different sports. The economy is one sick puppy and we are seeing first hand now what it looks like once the crutch of government support is taken away.

Then there's Consumer Metrics Daily Growth Index: