2010-12-04

Obama's sinking ship

But there is a real way to save the Obama presidency: by challenging him in the 2012 presidential primaries with a candidate who would unambiguously commit to a well-defined progressive agenda and contrast it with the Obama administration's policies. Such a candidacy would be pooh-poohed by the media, but if it gathered enough popular support - as is likely given the level of alienation among many who were the backbone of Obama's 2008 success - this campaign would pressure Obama toward much more progressive positions and make him a more viable 2012 candidate. Far from weakening his chances for reelection, this kind of progressive primary challenge could save Obama if he moves in the desired direction. And if he holds firm to his current track, he's a goner anyway.
Save Obama - by running against him
The basic platform for such a candidate is clear: Unequivocally call for an immediate end to the presence of U.S. troops, advisers and private U.S.-based security firms in Afghanistan, Iraq and Pakistan, and replace the "war on terror" with a Global Marshall Plan that roots homeland security in a strategy of generosity and concern for the well-being of everyone on the planet. Domestically, call for a massive jobs program; a freeze on mortgage foreclosures; a national bank that would offer interest-free loans to those seeking to create or expand small businesses; immediate implementation of the parts of the Obama health-care plan that would benefit ordinary citizens and build support for a health plan for all citizens; dramatically lower prices for drugs that treat critical diseases such as AIDS and cancer; a strong tax on carbon emissions; and immediate prosecution of those government employees involved in torture or coverups to justify the invasion of Iraq. This candidate should push for the media to provide free and equal time to all major candidates for national office as well as for constitutional amendments requiring only public financing in elections and, separately, for corporations to prove every five years to a jury of ordinary citizens that they have a satisfactory history of environmental responsibility (as is sought by the Environmental and Social Responsibility Amendment, or ESRA, advocated by the Network of Spiritual Progressives).
The author's (Michael Lerner) suggestions are insane, such as ending the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan (good) and replacing them with a new Marshall Plan. Post WW2 America had most of the world's money (gold), now it has all the debt. It cannot lend to itself, let alone foreign countries. The left tends to be poor on economics and the problem for them this time is that the public has become realistic about economics, which dooms most of the fantasy proposals that usually win public support.

Either way, social mood is negative and Obama's base is already gone, whether he knows it or not. Clinton benefited from two things in 1996. One, the economy was booming and social mood was positive and rising. Two, New Gingrich came to embody the Republican leadership and made focused attacks easy. A President popular due to the good times and a target-able enemy made for an easy political comeback. This time, Obama is unpopular due to the negative social mood and the most prominent Republican is not currently in elected office—Sarah Palin. Therefore, I expect his attacks will fail to find their mark and he will in fact face a primary challenge in 2012, if he even decides to seek reelection. (Always with the caveat that both parties have extensive foot shooting experience and Republicans are ready and willing to self-destruct given the slightest opportunity.)

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