2013-03-17

Is this the Oesterreichische-Kredit-Anstalt moment? Who gains from Cyprus?

In Similarities Between the Great Depression and Today, last updated in August 2011, I compared many bank failures and sovereign debt crises to Kredit-Anstalt, the bank failure in 1931 that unleashed the second leg of the depression by forcing Austria off the gold standard, and later the rest of Europe.

The usual suspects who are already upset about bank policies across the West and calling the Cyprus depositor tax a crossing of the financial Rubicon. However, Cyprus may decide to reject the plan and pushed back a vote to Monday.

To use a social mood example: almost everyone getting upset about the plan is already upset. Their mood is already negative towards the banks. If events in Cyprus trigger the tipping point that ushers in the next major decline in mood, it will be based upon whether the people on the margin swing to negative mood or consider this a different form of what has already been done to Ireland and Greece.

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