2013-12-27

Pop Goes the Credit Bubbles: Turkey and Thailand in Crisis

Political problems follow accompany or quickly follow on the heels of credit busts because the decline in economic activity follows a turn in social mood that eventually spreads to politics.

Thaliand

April: Booming Thai banks wary of credit bubble
November: Thailand's Bubble Economy Is Heading For A 1997-Style Crash
December: Thai Opposition: Yingluck Will Leave Or Die

Turkey:
April: Turkey's ticking debt time-bomb
August: Turkish lira may need higher interest rates to escape emerging markets rout
December: Turkish PM struggles to contain corruption probe

Bonus: 1997 Asian Crisis Redux - Thailand Is Imploding
Many economists believe that the Asian crisis was created not by market psychology or technology, but by policies that distorted incentives within the lender–borrower relationship. The resulting large quantities of credit that became available generated a highly leveraged economic climate, and pushed up asset prices to an unsustainable level

Politics appears to be leading in Thaliand this time, but this paragraph is more applicable to China, the mother of all emerging market credit bubbles. Rough seas ahead in 2014.

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