Hundreds of Billions Expected to Flow From Property Market to Stock Market

Stocks are much cheaper than property and now that the property market is cooling, pension funds and other investors are changing their outlooks on the two asset classes. This is going to be a major turn in market sentiment, but it has barely even begun.

千亿资金弃房炒股 社保基金青睐10股

Property investment property or weakening of billions fought in the stock market

July A shares open a wave of rising prices , accompanied by trading volume increase. Compared with the stock market getting warmer, the property market is still hovering in the downturn. Real estate development and investment growth continued to fall, real estate sales also continue to decline.

According to Reporters survey found, with the weakening of the real estate investment properties, including developers, part of the funds, including the brewing of hot money into the stock market. According to industry estimates, the size of funds to evacuate the property market will reach one hundred billion yuan. In economic stabilization, such as Shanghai and Hong Kong through the expected start, driven by incremental funding will have a certain impact on the stock market.

Property funds brewing approach

Cui is a small city in the south, chairman of developer, recently invited to participate in a large-scale real estate investment promotion. Unlike in the past, this time the developers attending the heat was cool.

"Golden period property has been coming to an end, the future is not without investment opportunities, but real estate will become very difficult to earn money, success or failure depends on investment perspective." In the real estate industry for many years of Cui, hold the hands of a city located in Hebei real estate projects, despite the integration of Beijing, Tianjin and support, but Cui still figuring out how "abandoned house ashore."

"Real estate assets after all heavy industry, and years of silence capital markets, but it has clear signs of recovery. Around my friends have started mobilizing funds fought in the stock market, according to a reporter," real estate circles of friends recently took a few pieces of land to Guangdong do financing, and called several projects are more likely to enter into A shares. "

Due to the current real estate market suffered regulation, housing prices in the business environment is becoming increasingly difficult. From real estate projects take place, planning, approval and then to start construction, are facing more challenges. Coupled with the slowdown in the flow of capital, many small and medium housing prices is difficult to keep up with the follow-up project, and then brewing the new investment.

"I have two projects currently in the hands of one into the sales cycle, project planning after another waiting for approval to start construction." Cui said that in addition to project the necessary working capital, he has begun to transfer funds to batches owned investment company, waiting waiting A large market shares.

"It's not a secret in the circle, not to say that companies began to stocks , nor that developers want to give up the main industry, but finding the right to invest funds for the account tummy. "It is a real estate insiders told reporters, currently a domestic Large developers are planning to ten billion yuan of funds to the brokerage of financial , designated A-share market to invest. "If the A-share market prices over the next year, the developers certainly do not want to miss the opportunity to make money." The person with respect.

Just some developers brewing to put money into the stock market, under the background of market regulation, some social funds removed hot money began to enter the market, according to the reporter found visited the part of the brokerage business department, many of the "big" has already started to pay attention signs the property market funds . For A-shares since July rally, these stocks "veteran" who have their own opinions, in addition to the macro- expected improvement in the external, foreign Zengcang market, the central enterprises to reform the subject of speculation and other factors, the property market funds also mentioned a lot of people.

"Recently I have learned into the market looking for a lot of people do, but really throw the house to stocks of small, basically idle funds, but now come before going to real estate stocks." In Beijing Financial Street in the vicinity of a brokerage business department, A share has ten years of age, "big" told reporters that the property market in mutual funds already in the flow, especially in some companies and private equity funds, there are many active before the real estate market, it is now part into the stock market.

Some brokerage business department account manager also told the reporter that the recent slight increase in the number of new accounts over the previous total account customers also increased. Chinese settlement data show that 7 A shares since the end of the growing number of new accounts, to August 15 a week, more than 150,000 of new accounts size has a new high of nearly 20 weeks since. This means that the OTC market is accelerating the pace of investors.

Real estate investment properties decreased

China's real estate market through ten years of " golden age when, "in the past, even in the event of market volatility or inflationary pressures, increasing the value still showing characteristics. It is easy for investors to generate buy a house "makes money" idea. However, with the deepening of the current regulation of real estate, property investment property has been significantly weakened.

Market participants pointed out that the current property market structure is changing, investment buyers demand is gradually exit the market, in order to improve the type of the first set and the demand for housing has become the main market players. After the investment property fade, "speculation" funds in capital driven by profit-driven nature will flow to other values, "depression", while the A shares is to choose one.

"The current stock market is much lower than the extent of the property bubble, there is some upside, but stock market lower threshold than property investment easier to attract capital into the sidelines." An unnamed brokerage analysts believe that although very Difficult specific estimates of hot money out of the property market in the figures, but it would be great magnitude, could reach hundreds of billions of scale. "Although we can not say that these funds will be fully into the stock market, but there will be some impact on the market." The analyst bluntly.

In fact, once familiar scene staged in 2010. At the beginning of 2010, the State Council issued the "National 11", differentiated credit policy implementation requires increased efforts to rectify the real estate market. In April it announced resolutely curb housing prices in some cities "ten countries." September to consolidate the results of market regulation measures "five countries" were introduced, clearly stated on the price too high, soaring, supply the city, to limit the purchase of copy number of households within a certain time. Soon after, differentiated credit policy and related tax policies have been introduced.

Policy of gradual tightening in the property market background, the second half of 2010 the real estate market correction, the continuous decline in national housing climate index, 70 cities real estate price index also appears decline. Correspondingly, the stock market in the second half of 2010 had a rebound, and once stood above 3,000 points, picked up new accounts and the market showing signs of incremental funding. That time, including gold companies, including a number of brokerage firms have released a report, originally expected active in the field of real estate funds will flow to other areas, the size of funds at least 500 billion yuan or more.

"There are a number of different situations, and in 2010 when now live." Above brokerage analysts said, although the property market in 2010 after the encounter policy control, some speculation capital outflows. But then the global economic downturn, the domestic macro-economic growth continues to decline, the stock market does not have the upside momentum. However, the current global economy gradually stabilized, accelerating the transformation of economic structure, the market is expected to shift taking place.

"This year, this wave of market stock funds rely more stimulating venue, once a certain gains, may be a correction, which also created the conditions for a new funding approach. Crucial next step is to take the cattle A-share funds willingness approach , whether diversion of funds from the property, or industrial capital into the fund, the focus is whether the volume continues to expand, and into the incremental funding will further activation of the Chinese capital market. "above analyst bluntly.

Market expectations feed into key

Historically, when ample liquidity, generally a positive correlation between the stock and property markets, but in the present, "a wall of a sparse," the special period, the two began to show the shift in the relationship. Insiders pointed out that investors' expectations of future stock and property markets will be capital flows, the key is located.

Under the dual role of macro-control and regulation of real estate, the value of real estate investment began to fall, home demand gradually become the main support of the market. Although there are many cities added to the ranks of purchase of the policy of deregulation, but from the point of view of the industry in general, "to house" trend of China's economic growth has not changed.

UBS released report shows that in 2013 the amount of housing construction was significantly higher than that of Chinese urbanization and update improves the birth of housing demand. Falling house prices, the future of real estate tax and the rise of new investment channels will continue to curb investment demand, which means that the next few years, real estate supply must be adjusted to a lower "new normal." UBS analysts believe that although the credit weakness in July, the real economy rebound suspended, but external demand is expected to continue to improve, continue moderately loose policy will help economic growth in the next two months to keep healthy.

At the same time, continuing a steady partial easing of liquidity is also expected to allow the market to worry about the financial side weakened. Shanghai and Hong Kong in particular, through the advance of the blue-chip underestimate the value of A shares continue upward played a role.

According to a major bank executives revealed that the current funding from the bank pulled probably follow two paths, one intended to switch to the A-share market, waiting for investment opportunities in the A-share market. Another part of the funds have fled Hong Kong signs. "On the one hand, Hong Kong stocks listed company dividends and other higher returns, on the other hand also waiting to see China's economic situation. "the source said.

It is understood, Shanghai and Hong Kong through the promotion of a positive result in the accumulation of a large number of overseas capital market in Hong Kong. There are agencies estimated that nearly two months, a total of 16 full launch in Hong Kong 65 billion Hong Kong dollars to hedge against the dollar . Overseas funds are not currently convertible into yuan, mainly purchased RQFII and ETF, but does not rule with the Hong Kong and Shanghai through approaching, overseas funds to enter the mainland market, become part of the A-share market incremental funding.