Falling producer prices are starting to have an effect on some of the numbers. Going by the raw data, the yoy growth figures are coming in below the gov't reported number. This amounts to a small difference in the cumulative numbers, but does not explain the big gap between the September yoy growth figure of 8.6% and the cumulative figure of 12.5%; investment is slowing sharply as the year goes on.
Original RE investment report is available here: 2014年1-9月份全国房地产开发和销售情况.
The other investment numbers:
Fixed Asset Investment: the Chinese govt reports the 16.1% cumulative growth through September. 2014年1-9月份全国固定资产投资 The raw unadjusted data shows growth was only 15.7% cumulative. As for the yoy single month comparison, growth fell to 11.5% in September, down from the 13.3% growth rate in August. As with RE investment, well below trend.
Private Fixed Asset Investment: the official number is 18.3% cumulative yoy growth. Unadjusted data shows 17.7% growth. In August the single month growth figure was 16.0%; growth collapsed to 11.7% in September. 2014年1-9月份民间固定资产投资
Industrial production did jump in September. Here's ZeroHedge: Do You Believe In Chinese Miracles? Manufacturing is a leading indicator, but investment is a leading indicator of manufacturing. The data points to a accelerating slowdown in Q4 unless the October numbers rebound.
Here's the real estate detail:
Table 1 2014 Jan-Sep national real estate development and sales | ||
Indicators | The absolute amount | An increase ( % ) |
Real estate investment (¥100 Million) | 68751 | 12.5 |
Of which: Residential | 46725 | 11.3 |
Office | 4008 | 22.8 |
Commercial space business | 10342 | 22.8 |
Housing construction area (10,000 square meters) | 673,230 | 11.5 |
Of which: Residential | 479,017 | 8.1 |
Office | 27381 | 24.5 |
Commercial space business | 86673 | 20.1 |
New housing construction area (10,000 square meters) | 131,411 | -9.3 |
Of which: Residential | 91754 | -13.5 |
Office | 5315 | 15.4 |
Commercial space business | 18263 | 0.0 |
Housing area (10,000 square meters) | 56504 | 7.2 |
Of which: Residential | 43269 | 5.1 |
Office | 1415 | 15.3 |
Commercial space business | 6408 | 12.2 |
Land acquisition area (10,000 square meters) | 24014 | -4.6 |
Land transaction price (¥ 100 million) | 6781 | 11.5 |
Sales of commercial area (10,000 square meters) | 77132 | -8.6 |
Of which: Residential | 67669 | -10.3 |
Office | 1647 | -9.5 |
Commercial space business | 5468 | 7.0 |
Commercial sales (million) | 49227 | -8.9 |
Of which: Residential | 40516 | -10.8 |
Office | 1986 | -19.7 |
Commercial space business | 5469 | 6.8 |
Real estate for sale (10,000 square meters) | 57148 | 28.0 |
Of which: Residential | 37676 | 28.5 |
Office | 2250 | 34.7 |
Commercial space business | 10982 | 27.1 |
Real estate development enterprise funds in place (million) | 89869 | 2.3 |
Of which: domestic loans | 16288 | 11.8 |
Utilization of foreign capital | 430 | 9.9 |
Self-financing | 37535 | 11.5 |
Other funds | 35616 | -9.1 |
Among them: the deposit and advance payment | 21582 | -11.1 |
Individual mortgage loans | 9794 | -4.9 |
Table 2 2014 Jan-Sep Real Estate Development Investment | ||||
Land area | Investment (million) | An increase ( % ) | ||
Residential | Residential | |||
Total national | 68751 | 46725 | 12.5 | 11.3 |
Eastern region | 38737 | 26062 | 12.6 | 10.9 |
Central Region | 14536 | 10260 | 10.7 | 12.0 |
Western Region | 15479 | 10402 | 14.0 | 11.5 |
Table 3 2014 Jan-Sep Real Estate Sales | ||||
Area | Real estate sales | Commercial sales | ||
Absolute (10,000 square meters) | An increase ( % ) | Absolute (million) | An increase ( % ) | |
Total national | 77132 | -8.6 | 49227 | -8.9 |
Eastern region | 35908 | -15.3 | 28418 | -15.5 |
Central Region | 20693 | -2.9 | 10337 | 1.1 |
Western Region | 20531 | -0.6 | 10472 | 2.8 |
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