2014-12-19

Why Is Oil Down? China's "Open Secret" Slowdown

Wondering why oil is down? Demand is down. Saudi Arabia Says Hard for OPEC to Give Up Market Share
Global oil markets are experiencing “temporary” instability caused mainly by a slowdown in the world economy, Oil Minister Ali Al-Naimi said, according to comments published yesterday by the Saudi Press Agency. He reiterated the country’s intention to maintain output amid plunging prices.

China's slowdown is an open secret: for all the government is blamed for massaging the data, it puts out a lot of data that shows sharp slowdowns in various sectors and geographic regions. The charts below are cherry picked to show where the economy is slowing. The slowdown/recession is still concentrated in the northeast and real estate related sectors, although the drop in electricity production and autos hints at a widening slowdown.

Auto production is down.
Related: Massive Volume "Panic Selling" Cuts Warren Buffett's Chinese Car Maker BYD In Half Overnight
The reason - perhaps unsurprising - given by some is worries over Mainland China IPOs "caused a liquidity squeeze," as the recent rally in mainland shares is led by leverage financing leading to major margin-calls on modest drops. Is it any wonder the PBOC is trying to tamp down the speculation.
I don't think so, since earlier this month a CASS researcher explained how smart money is buying when there are liquidity freezes. Also, BYD trades in HK, not only the Mainland, but the drop was larger in the market without a liquidity freeze......ZeroHedge links to a story with the real reason (reason not in headline): China Stocks Fall From 4-Year High on IPO Concern as BYD Slumps
BYD, the automaker partially owned by Warren Buffett’s Berkshire Hathaway Inc., slumped as much as 47 percent in Hong Kong and plunged by the daily limit in Shenzhen.

......The shares slid 10 percent in Shenzhen. Investors are speculating on BYD’s outlook after Geely Automobile Holdings forecast a plunge in profits on the slumping ruble, said Mari Oshidari, a Hong Kong-based strategist at Okasan Securities Group Inc.
The contagion begins? BYD addressed 6 rumors today: 比亚迪紧急会议澄清六大传言:王传福没“出事”
1. Russia is not the presence of large amounts of foreign exchange losses, BYD sales to Russia a year only a few hundred thousand dollars ; 2. electric cars are all running correctly; 3. battery factory normal operation; 4. for the reduction of major investors rumors, investors and members through communication, nor understand; 5. the possibility of Buffett's holdings of small, recently did a communication; 6. Wang no "trouble", he still presided over the shareholders' meeting yesterday, today also met with the staff.

Electricity production:

Cement production:

Industrial production in China's industrial heartland. Hebei technically isn't in the northeast, but has many steel mills. Beijing and national rate in for comparison.

Real estate investment in Liaoning province, Heilongjiang and Jilin.

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