2015-06-17

Bifurcation Gone Wild: New Home Prices Rebound in May Due to Shenzhen

According to the latest NBS data, new home prices increased 0.06% in May. The gain was the result of a single city: Shenzhen, which saw prices rise an incredible 6.6% in May alone. If Shenzhen is removed from the calculation, home prices fell 0.03% nationally. That's still an improvement from April's 0.1% decline and as shown below, the number of cities with declining prices continues to fall. The largest decline was in Tangshan, a drop of 0.6%.

Year over year, prices are down 6.0%.

Since 2010, average prices are up 7.6%.

March 2014: 4 cities saw declines in price mom, 10 cities were flat, 56 were up.
April: 8 cities saw declines in price mom, 18 cities were flat, 44 were up.
May: 35 cities saw declines in price mom, 20 cities were flat, 15 were up.
June: 55 cities saw declines in price mom, 7 cities were flat, 8 were up.
July: 64 cities saw declines in price mom, 4 cities were flat, 2 were up.
August: 68 cities saw declines in price mom, 1 city was flat, 1 was up.
September: 69 cities saw declines in price mom, 1 city was flat, 0 were up.
October: 69 cities saw declines in price mom, 1 city was flat, 0 were up.
November: 67 cities saw declines in price mom, 3 cities were flat, 0 were up.
December: 65 cities saw declines in price mom, 4 cities were flat, 1 was up.
January 2015: 65 cities saw declines in price mom, 3 cities were flat, 2 were up.
February: 66 cities saw declines in price mom, 2 cities were flat, 2 were up.
March: 49 cities saw declines in price mom, 9 cities were flat, 12 were up.
April: 47 cities saw declines in price mom, 5 cities were flat, 18 were up.
May: 41 cities saw declines in price mom, 9 cities were flat, 20 were up.

Existing home prices increased 0.25% in May. Prices are down 4.8% yoy. Since 2010, existing homes have only risen an average of 2.3%. Shenzhen existing home prices increased 6.3%, Beijing increased 4.3%, Guangzhou increased 2.3%, Shanghai 2.2%.

70 city new home price changes by market segment: below 90 sqm prices increased 0.06% mom; 90-144 sqm prices increased 0.09%; above 144 sqm prices climbed 0.05%.

70 city existing home price changes by market segment: below 90 sqm prices increased 0.29% mom; 90-144 sqm prices climbed 0.22%; above 144 sqm prices were up 0.25%.

Source: 2015年5月份70个大中城市住宅销售价格变动情况

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