2015-06-18

Protectionism Back on the Table in U.S.

Mild China bashing is a feature of every presidential election in the U.S. This year, there will be nothing mild about the rhetoric.
China rebuffs Trump comments on stealing U.S. jobs
He saved his wildest attacks for foreign policy, frequently accusing China of stealing jobs and portraying himself as a tough negotiator who would beat Beijing at its own game.

Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesman Lu Kang disagreed.

"Economic and trade cooperation between China and the United States has grown to such an extent today that it has become like 'You are among us and we are among you'," Lu said when asked about Trump's comments.

"It's a two-way win-win situation. Such trade has actually given the two sides great benefits," Lu said, without directly using Trump's name.

"I believe that despite the frictions that still exist, both sides are able to handle it through existing channels. I believe that without a good foundation, this kind of trade relationship cannot be sustained."
You don't have to take Trump seriously as a candidate, but what you should take very seriously is wildly popular public opinion is about to be expressed by a major public figure for the first time in over 20 years. I doubt he secures the nomination, but like Perot in 1992, he stands a good chance of changing the debate on issues such as immigration and trade. All over the world there have been major changes in politics, but the conservative U.S. system (it takes 6 years to complete an electoral revolution and most of the time voters reverse their decision after 2 years) has been bottled up by two consecutive two-term presidents. The conservative (for the system) choices in 2016 are Clinton and Bush, two retreads. Since the U.S. system is winner-take-all, increased volatility doesn't lead to a shift in government the way it does in parliamentary systems, so betting on a Bush or Clinton looks like the safe bet. That said, 2016 is likely to be the most volatile situation since 1992, when for a brief moment it really seemed as if a third party candidate would challenge for the White House.

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