Hope Rises Again! OECD Raises GDP Growth Estimates

A bigger wave of hope has arrived.

World Finance: The OECD expects the global economy to maintain growth momentum in 2018

The latest figures for economic growth showed a 3.6 percent annual growth in the second quarter, marking the strongest pace in more than two years. The last time economies showed such robust performance was in the first quarter of 2015, The Wall Street Journal reported.

In the next six to nine months, the US, Japan, Canada and the majority of European countries are expected to maintain “stable growth momentum”, according to the OECD. Others, such as Italy, are forecast to grow faster.

With regards to China, whose performance is a matter of concern worldwide, the report highlighted that the economy’s output will be boosted in the months ahead by strong performance in its industrial sector.

iFeng: OECD：全球主要经济体首次同步增长 或将摆脱经济阴霾

Every blip in copper reflects a moment of hope for the economy. We are in the middle of a much larger rebound today, one that offers new hope for the global economy. Underlying problems remain unsolved, however. The main issue remains credit growth, and there's no sign of a return to normal in the United States.

As I've said for much of the past 18 months, the rise in commodity prices such as copper is the best argument for a recovery. But until I see a good signal that growth is picking up, I'm sticking to a bearish view. The U.S. economy has grown far below potential for a decade now. A recovery will not be a blip, it will be a rip-roaring rally that sees wage growth climb 5+ percent, inflation rise above 3 percent and the Federal Reserve in panic mode. Under current conditions, President Trump's growth-via-negative strategy of removing illegal aliens, vastly reducing immigration and renegotiating trade is the fastest and surest way to restarting U.S. growth. Wage growth will spur inflation. That will spur investment as debt depreciates. Rising wages and inflation will accelerate capital investment in labor-saving productivity growth. It will be messy, but short of a "white swan" there is no clean exit. There is no restarting a global system that requires a further reduction in developed living standards.